Part II: Choice and Action

Decision Under Uncertainty

The Logic of Economic Choice

Colors:AgreeDisagreeMixed
§G.L.S. Shackle
Frank Knight
Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit
John Maynard Keynes
General Theory
Ludwig Lachmann
Capital and Its Structure
§5

The Moment of Choice

The decision moment is the point at which possibility collapses into actuality. Before the decision, multiple futures seem possible. After the decision, we are committed to a particular course of action, and other possibilities are foreclosed. This moment has a unique character—it is simultaneously creative and destructive. Creative because the chooser brings into being a state of affairs that would not otherwise exist. Destructive because choosing one option necessarily means rejecting others. The decision moment cannot be broken into smaller temporal units—it is atomic and indivisible. Economic theory that portrays choice as continuous optimization misses this discrete, singular character of real decision-making.

While Shackle poetically describes the decision moment, we should remember that economic analysis requires abstraction from subjective experience. Whether choice feels discrete or continuous to the decision-maker is less important than understanding the logical structure of choice under uncertainty. The key insight is that choice requires judgment about uncertain outcomes, and this judgment cannot be reduced to algorithmic calculation. But we need not accept Shackle's phenomenological framework to recognize this. Standard economic theory can accommodate uncertainty through the concept of uninsurable risk that must be borne by entrepreneurs.

The discrete character of decision moments helps explain the volatility of investment. Investment decisions are not made continuously based on smoothly changing variables, but discontinuously based on shifts in confidence and sentiment. An entrepreneur may deliberate for months, seeing no compelling reason to invest, then suddenly become convinced and commit large sums almost instantly. This discontinuity cannot be captured by marginal analysis that assumes smooth adjustments. It explains why investment can shift dramatically with changes in business sentiment even when 'fundamental' economic variables have barely moved.

Shackle's phenomenology of the decision moment is crucial for understanding economic action. Choice is not the mechanical selection of a pre-existing maximum, but a creative act that shapes reality. This is why capital theory must be grounded in human action, not in technological constraints. Capital structures reflect past choices that have now become sunk commitments. The capital structure is thus a historical residue of previous decision moments, and its future evolution depends on how current decision-makers imagine future possibilities. This is radically different from the neoclassical view of capital as homogeneous 'jelly' that automatically flows to its most productive use.

§6

Bounded Rationality

Perfect rationality—complete knowledge, unlimited computational ability, consistent preferences—is a mathematical fiction, not a description of human decision-making. Real people face cognitive limits: bounded knowledge, limited attention, constrained memory and computational capacity. These limitations are not temporary imperfections to be overcome through better information systems or faster computers. They are fundamental features of human cognition. Decision-makers respond to these constraints by using heuristics, rules of thumb, and satisficing behavior (seeking satisfactory rather than optimal outcomes). These strategies are not irrational—they are rational adaptations to an environment of complexity and uncertainty where optimization is impossible.

Shackle's point about bounded rationality is valid, but we must be careful about its implications. The fact that perfect rationality is impossible doesn't mean that rationality is unimportant or that economic theory should abandon rational choice models. Businessmen may use heuristics rather than optimization algorithms, but successful heuristics are those that generate approximately optimal outcomes. The market process rewards more rational decision-making and penalizes less rational. Over time, survival of the fittest produces behavior that approximates rational optimization, even if individual actors don't consciously optimize.

Bounded rationality reinforces my argument that conventional behavior and social norms play essential roles in economic life. When rational calculation is impossible due to complexity and uncertainty, people fall back on conventions—traditional practices, expert opinion, group behavior. This isn't irrational; it's a reasonable response to the limits of individual knowledge and computation. But it means that economic outcomes depend heavily on the prevailing conventions, which can shift suddenly. When conventional behavior changes—when a bubble bursts or panic sets in—the economy can shift dramatically even without changes in underlying productivity or resources.

Bounded rationality connects to my emphasis on the role of institutions in economic life. Market institutions—prices, property rights, contracts, corporate forms—economize on the cognitive demands placed on decision-makers. Instead of needing to know everything, a price-taker need only know the price and their own costs. Instead of predicting all future contingencies, parties to a contract specify a limited set of obligations. Institutions are social technologies that make rational action possible despite bounded rationality. This is why institutional economics is essential—we cannot understand economic behavior without understanding the institutions that structure choice.

§7

Crucial Decisions

Some decisions are crucial in the sense that they are largely irreversible and have far-reaching consequences. Choosing a career, starting a business, making a major investment—these decisions commit the chooser to a particular path that constrains future options. Crucial decisions differ from routine choices not just in magnitude but in kind. They require different cognitive processes—more deliberation, more imagination, more tolerance for uncertainty. Economic models that treat all choices as marginal adjustments miss the distinctive character of crucial decisions. These are the decisions that shape individual lives and aggregate economic development, yet they are precisely the ones least amenable to the optimizing framework of conventional theory.

Shackle's distinction between routine and crucial decisions is useful descriptively, but analytically both involve the same fundamental elements: uncertainty and judgment. The difference is quantitative (magnitude of consequences, degree of irreversibility) rather than qualitative. Economic theory can handle this through concepts like sunk costs and option value without needing a separate framework for crucial decisions. The entrepreneur making a major investment faces the same logical structure as the consumer choosing between products: imagining alternative outcomes, assessing uncertainties, and committing to a course of action. The principle of profit as a reward for uncertainty-bearing applies in both cases.

The irreversibility of crucial decisions explains the importance of liquidity preference. People know that they will face crucial decisions in the future whose nature cannot be predicted now. They therefore value liquidity—the ability to keep options open and respond to unforeseen opportunities or threats. This is why money is held as a store of value despite earning no return. The liquidity premium reflects not just transaction demands, but the demand to preserve flexibility in the face of genuine uncertainty about future crucial decisions. This insight cannot be incorporated into models that assume perfect foresight or calculable risk.

Crucial decisions are central to capital theory and economic dynamics. Capital investment is precisely a crucial decision—committing durable resources to a specific plan based on expectations about an uncertain future. These decisions create path dependencies. Once capital is invested in a particular structure, future options are constrained by the need to utilize existing capital. This is why capital cannot be treated as homogeneous or perfectly malleable. The capital structure embodies past crucial decisions, and its reorganization in light of new information is costly and time-consuming. This is the Austrian critique of neoclassical capital theory in a nutshell.